President Donald Trump ‘s proposed tariffs on some of the U.S.’s major trading partners — Mexico, Canada and China — present a challenging headwind for U.S. companies that depend on the affected countries for imports and manufacturing. While forecasts on the full economic impact of tariffs vary across Wall Street, the levies are widely expected to negatively hit U.S. growth and place upward pressure on inflation. Goldman Sachs estimates across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico — excluding China from its calculations — will result in a 0.7% increase in core prices and a 0.4% hit to gross domestic product. Trouble ahead for consumer names The implementation of these levies will hurt U.S. companies that have imports and supply chains integrated along the regions. Many U.S. fashion retailers also rely upon the countries and face risks from the tariffs. Western clothing and cowboy boot company Boot Barn is exposed to tariff downsides, according to Bank of America. Thirty percent of the company’s production comes out of China, while 25% is from Mexico, according to analyst Christopher Nardone. In addition, major U.S. automakers will face serious challenges to their business strategies as a result of the tariffs. Although many of these companies have factories across the U.S., the six top-selling automakers have at least one plant in Mexico. Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said Friday on ” Squawk on the Street ” that automakers in the Midwest — which he likened to “the Saudi Arabia of the auto industry” — are concerned by what the tariffs mean for their businesses. “When I’m talking to senior auto executives, they’re very concerned about what tariffs might do to their prices or to their profit margins,” he said. “We do have to work these through before we can express confidence on where we are on the underlying economy.” Bank of America analyst John Murphy highlighted Ford Motor and General Motors as names that will be “extremely challenged” by the tariffs. “Ford and General Motors produce 15-20% and 30-35% of their total vehicles in Canada and Mexico respectively,” he wrote in a Friday note. F GM 1Y mountain Ford and General Motors over the past year “If the tariffs are imposed and remain for an extended period, it will cause extreme stress through the automotive value chain,” Murphy said. The analyst said that the 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports will result in an additional $50 billion in costs for the auto industry. Spirits at risk Companies that produce alcoholic beverages may also take hit from tariffs. Mexico comprised 83% of U.S. beer imports and almost half of spirits imports by volume in 2024, according to Bank of America analyst Brian Callen. “Tariffs brew trouble for alcohol,” Callen said in a Monday note. Beer and tequila production is at particular risk, he added. Constellation Brands and Diageo could see margin compression, the analyst added. STZ 1Y mountain Constellation Brands over the past year Bernstein also highlighted Constellation as the U.S. brand that will be most affected under Trump’s tariffs. Constellation holds the brand licensing rights for Corona and Modelo in the U.S., and 89% of the company’s profits are derived from its beer portfolio of super premium Mexican imports, said analyst Nadine Sarwat in a Jan. 20 note. In addition to supply-side risks, the potential for higher inflation resulting from tariffs is further downside risk for Constellation, she added. “Widespread use of import tariffs could lead to stronger US inflation, placing further pressure on an already fragile US consumer, especially at the low-income end,” Sarwat said. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
