Piper Sandler is lowering its growth targets on Boston Beer after a recent disappointing launch of Hard Mountain Dew. Analyst Michael Lavery downgraded shares to neutral from overweight. He also cut his price target on shares to $275 from $370, implying just 9.9% upside potential from Wednesday’s close. The recent rollout of Hard Mountain Dew has been slower to take off than initially expected, according to Lavery. Although Boston Beer management has expressed confidence that the beverage could be “the most successful of all the crossover brands from non-alcoholic analogs over time,” the analyst no longer forecasts it as a upside catalyst for this year. “We had expected Hard Mtn Dew to drive incremental upside as it launched nationally, and it continues to ramp up in SAM’s distribution network, but success will likely take more time to build than we had expected,” Lavery wrote in a client note. In addition, Twisted Tea, which accounts for around half of the company’s revenues, has also seen its sales growth halve quarter over quarter. “We still expect margin improvement, driving EPS growth, but lower our multiple,” Lavery added. Shares traded more than 1% lower on Thursday in the premarket following the downgrade. SAM 1D mountain Boston Beer shares on Thursday The rating change puts Lavery in line with most analysts covering the stock. LSEG data shows that 13 of 25 analysts who cover Boston Beer rate the stock as a hold or underperform. Only two have a buy rating on it. Boston Beer is coming off a losing year, falling 13.2% in 2024. That negative momentum carried over into early 2025, with the stock already down 16.6% year to date.
